Visit sales forecasting is the central pillar of any replenishment strategy. replenishment strategy efficient. It enables anticipate stock requirementsavoid stock-outs and limit surpluses.
By providing a realistic estimate of future demand, it feeds into production planning. production planningplanning logisticsand cash flow and human resources. For networked companies, such as franchises, it can also be used to calibrate internal orders, as when a franchised site places an order with a central office, as Buffalo Grill does.
In a world where data is at the heart of decision-makingforecasting becomes a key leverintegrated into management modulesthe dashboardsor the sales forecasting software increasingly used by VSEs and SMEs.
What is sales forecasting?
Visit sales forecast means estimating quantitative and qualitative of the volumes a company expects to sell over a given period.
It can be applied to final sales as to internal demand, as in the case of franchisees who place orders with a head office.
It is a strategic processoften integrated into an information system or management software. This forecast thus becomes a an operational tool for inventory management decisions inventory managementand purchasingand logisticsor even accounting.
Sales forecasting: why is it important?
Are you still wondering why sales forecasts are important ? You need to know that companies that control their inventories without forecasts navigate by sight. Without anticipating demandthe risks are numerous: breakages, overstock, obsolescencecash flow cash flow.
A good forecast makes it possible to project the required volumes, to secure replenishments and maintain a optimal stock. This approach is often part of a sales management softwarea ERP or a management softwareto automate threshold alertsstreamline orders and manage indicators from a centralized dashboard.
It also meets the challenges of traceabilitytraceability reporting and budget managementin a multi-product or multi-site environment.
What's the difference between sales forecasting and demand forecasting?
Although these 2 notions are quite similar, there is a real a real difference between sales forecasting and demand forecasting. The sales forecasting is essentially based on the analysis of sales historywith projections based on past behavior.
The demand forecastinggoes a step further: it aims to estimate the actual real market needsby integrating missed salesthe effects of advertisingand promotions or other external events.
In other words, sales forecasting is oriented towards the companyoriented, while demand forecasting is market. In the management solutions solutions, these two approaches are crossed to provide a complete viewparticularly relevant in omnichannel omnichannel environments.
The different tools for sales forecasting
Numerous sales forecasting tools on the market. Very small companies often rely on spreadsheets like Excel, but as soon as a certain volume is reached, it becomes essential to switch to management software software.
These include solutions such as Sage, EBP, Cegid or even cloud platforms allow direct integration of forecasting modules directly into operational workflows.
These SaaS software software automates data collection, exports analyses in the form of dashboardsand integrate results into accounting software software inventory management tool. Some even integrate the customer relationship management to refine sales sales projections.
With this in mind, the XPA solution from Optimix solution stands outfor its ability to automatically cross-reference commercial commercial data, logistics data and contextual data to produce dynamic forecastsforecasts that can be directly activated in business business processes.
Sales forecasts: Why isn't Excel enough?
Excel is still a widely used tool for managing sales forecasts, not least because of its ease of use and flexibility. However, given the increasing volume of data, the complexity of the variables to be taken into account (seasonality, promotions, customer behavior…) and the need to work collaboratively and in real time, its limitations quickly become apparent.
The risk of manual error, the lack of traceability, the absence of automation and the impossibility of integrating complex predictive models make it a tool ill-suited to today’s challenges.
To understand in detail why it’s essential to go beyond Excel in your forecasting processes, read our full article : Sales forecasting: Why is a tool like Excel insufficient?.
How do you make a sales forecast?
Collecting historical data An essential starting point for any forecasting model.
Structuring and cleansing data Identify major trends, seasonal peaks and possible anomalies.
Select key products or segments Focus analysis on strategic or highly volatile references.
Integrate influential variables Include marketing events, weather effects, public holidays, promotions or other external factors.
Choose the right forecasting method Choose the right forecasting method: according to data type, time horizon and business needs.
Creating multiple scenarios Building optimistic, realistic and pessimistic projections to strengthen resilience.
Integrate scenarios into software modules Automate forecast updates using configurable tools.
Regular monitoring : compare forecasts with actual sales and adjust models on an ongoing basis
The different methods of effective sales forecasting
To obtain reliable sales forecasts, it’s not enough to rely on intuition or past trends observed with the naked eye. It’s essential to combine different methods – qualitative, quantitative and hybrid – to integrate historical data, market signals and field expertise.
Each approach has its advantages and limitations, and the choice of method depends on the context, the volume of data available and the company’s objectives. A well-thought-out forecasting strategy makes it possible to better manage inventories, anticipate peaks in activity and adjust resources more finely. To find out more about the different methods of effective sales forecasting, read our dedicated article : Methods for effective sales forecasts.
How to choose your sales forecasting software?
Choosing sales forecasting software isn’t just about comparing features: it’s also about finding the right solution for your processes, data volume and industry.and your industry.
For VSEs and SMEs, an intuitive tool in SaaS modeconnected to your ERP or CRM, is often ideal. It should automate data collection, produce reliable forecasts and provide clear dashboards.
The ability to integrate external variables (weather, promotions, seasonality) and manage multiple scenarios is essential to adjust your decisions in real time. For more complex businesses, software incorporating statistical or artificial intelligence models (XG Boost, neural networks) brings decisive value.
Finally, the personalizationErgonomics and ease of parameterization are crucial to encourage team buy-in. A good forecasting tool is a real lever for collaborative steering and performance.
Which KPIs to use to monitor sales forecasts?
The main indicators to follow when it comes to sales forecasting are the accuracy rateexpressed as a percentage of absolute error, and the forecast biaswhich reflects the tendency to over or underestimate demand.
Other key KPIs include breakage rateservice service rateservice stock rotation as well as the overall impact on cash flow. When integrated into a a powerful management toolthese indicators feed dashboards dashboards, customizable and that can be consulted in real timein real time, facilitating precise and and reactive business management.
Common sales forecasting errors
One of the most common errors in sales forecasting isoverlooking external factors such as weather, promotions or exceptional events, which can distort projections.
L’he use of a single model for all products is also problematic, as it does not take into account the specific features of each reference. L’ failure to take account of feedback from the fieldwhich is invaluable for adjusting forecasts, also undermines the reliability of the process.
Finally, a poor choice of software or parameterization of the forecasting modules modules can generate significant deviations, compromising the quality quality of analysis and the resulting operational decisions.
Highly accurate sales predictions thanks to AI
Artificial intelligence now makes it possible to significantly reduce the uncertainty associated with sales forecasts. Relying on advanced predictive models, companies can refine their scenarios, fine-tune inventories and reduce working capital requirements.
Integrating these algorithms into management software, whether specialized or part of an ERP system, automates the entire process, from data collection to decision-making.
This gain in precision improves overall company performance, whatever the sector of activity: trade, project management or e-commerce.
In conclusion, sales forecasting is not just about estimating sales, but also about better managing inventory, securing supplies, optimizing cash flow and anticipating needs.
In a digital environment dominated by SaaS solutions solutions and ERPforecasting tools integrate directly with sales management softwareand accounting software or decision-making dashboards.
For VSEs and SMEssolutions like Optimix XPA offer real time savings, greater visibility and the ability to react more quickly to market trends. Forecasting thus becomes an essential asset for effective business management.
